Representation / Research guide
How closely do votes and seats match under first-past-the-post?
The short answer
Not necessarily very closely. Canada elects one MP in each riding, and national seat totals add up those local wins. A party’s national share of House seats can differ substantially from its share of valid votes.
Two shares, two different quantities
- Vote share
- Percentage of valid votes received.
- Seat share
- Percentage of House seats won.
About these percentages
Vote share: A party’s votes divided by all valid votes cast in the stated area. National vote share is not a percentage of all Canadians or eligible voters.
Seat share: Seats won divided by all seats in the House at that election. A majority of seats and a majority of valid votes are different things.
Source: official 2019 results ↓Canada · 2019
Votes and seats are different
Canada’s 2019 federal election: share of valid votes compared with share of the 338 seats.
Under first-past-the-post, each riding elects one MP. National seat totals add up those local victories. In 2019, the Conservatives received more votes nationally, while the Liberals won more seats and formed a minority government.
In Canada’s 2019 federal election, Liberal candidates received 33.1% of valid votes and won 157 of 338 seats, or 46.4%. Conservative candidates received 34.3% and won 121 seats, or 35.8%. The accompanying table provides the same comparison for every displayed group.
Liberal Party of Canada
Share of valid votes33.1%Share of seats46.4%Conservative Party of Canada
Share of valid votes34.3%Share of seats35.8%Bloc Québécois
Share of valid votes7.6%Share of seats9.5%New Democratic Party
Share of valid votes16.0%Share of seats7.1%Green Party of Canada
Share of valid votes6.5%Share of seats0.9%People's Party of Canada
Share of valid votes1.6%Share of seats0.0%All other candidates
Share of valid votes0.8%Share of seats0.3%
Show data table
| Party / group | VotesShare of valid votes | Seats wonShare of seats |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party of Canada | 6,018,72833.1% | 15746.4% |
| Conservative Party of Canada | 6,239,22734.3% | 12135.8% |
| Bloc Québécois | 1,387,0307.6% | 329.5% |
| New Democratic Party | 2,903,72216.0% | 247.1% |
| Green Party of Canada | 1,189,6076.5% | 30.9% |
| People's Party of Canada | 294,0921.6% | 00.0% |
| All other candidates | 138,4740.8% | 10.3% |
| Total | 18,170,880 | 338 |
“All other candidates” is a calculated aggregate of the remaining affiliations, independents, and unaffiliated candidates. It is not a party.
These are historical results, not a prediction of an election under proportional representation. Different rules could change how people vote and how parties campaign. Percentages are rounded; “all other candidates” combines several affiliations.
Sources: Elections Canada, Official Voting Results, 43rd General Election: Table 8, valid votes; Table 7, seats. Percentages derive from those integer totals.
Why this happens
Count each riding separately
Canada elects one MP per riding. The candidate with the most votes wins, even if most voters chose other candidates.
Award one seat
Once a riding is won, a larger winning margin does not generate additional seats in that riding. Other ballots were counted, but did not elect their chosen candidates.
Add the local wins
A party’s House total is the number of riding contests its candidates win. Its national vote percentage is not applied directly to the House to allocate seats.
Concentrated support can win many constituencies. Dispersed support can produce substantial national votes without many riding victories. But concentration does not guarantee a seat bonus, and national totals alone cannot establish exactly how much geography explains a result; that requires riding-level analysis.
Different elections, different gaps
These are selected historical teaching examples, not a representative sample measuring average disproportionality. All shares here are national: valid votes cast and House seats at that election.
2011 · Conservative majority
Conservative
- Share of valid votes
- 39.6%
- Share of House seats
- 53.9%
- 166 of 308 seats
A majority of House seats with fewer than half of valid votes.
Official 2011 sources ↓2015 · Liberal majority
Liberal
- Share of valid votes
- 39.5%
- Share of House seats
- 54.4%
- 184 of 338 seats
A similar vote share produced a majority for a different party. Boundaries and House size differed between these elections.
Official 2015 sources ↓2021 · More votes, fewer seats
Liberal
- Share of valid votes
- 32.6%
- Share of House seats
- 47.3%
- 160 of 338 seats
Conservative
- Share of valid votes
- 33.7%
- Share of House seats
- 35.2%
- 119 of 338 seats
The Conservatives received more national votes; the Liberals won more seats and formed a minority government.
Official 2021 sources ↓2025 · A closer match for one party
Conservative
- Share of valid votes
- 41.3%
- Share of House seats
- 42.0%
Liberal
- Share of valid votes
- 43.8%
- Share of House seats
- 49.3%
The Conservative vote and seat shares were much closer. FPTP does not produce the same discrepancy for every party or election.
Official 2025 sources ↓Geography in view: Saskatchewan, 2019
These percentages describe valid votes cast in Saskatchewan, not across Canada. The province elected 14 MPs.
Conservative
- Provincial valid votes
- 64.0%
- Seats won in Saskatchewan
- 14 of 14
New Democratic Party
- Provincial valid votes
- 19.6%
- Seats won in Saskatchewan
- 0 of 14
The Conservatives won every riding; the NDP won none. Separate constituency contests aggregate into the provincial seat total. Support in a riding can produce votes without a seat, and a larger winning margin still produces only one seat there.
This illustrates the counting rule. Explaining geography’s exact contribution to the national result requires riding-level analysis; these provincial totals cannot isolate it.
What we can conclude
- Vote share and seat share can differ substantially under FPTP.
- The largest national vote total need not produce the largest seat total.
- A party can win a majority of seats without a majority of valid votes.
- The geographic distribution of support matters, alongside other differences between electorates.
What these results cannot tell us
These results do not establish:
- Exactly how many seats each party would have won under PR.
- How voters would have voted, or how parties would have nominated candidates and campaigned, under different rules.
- Whether a particular alternative design would have produced a specified result. Thresholds, districts and allocation rules differ between systems.
- Whether fairness has been settled as a single objective measure. Proportionality is measurable; the weight we give it alongside other democratic values is a judgment.
Historical FPTP results are not a prediction of an election under proportional representation. Reallocating the same votes under specified rules would be an illustration, with behaviour held constant. Voters, parties, candidates and campaigns could behave differently under a different system.
Elections Canada on alternative-system comparisons ↓ International IDEA on design values ↓
Sources and what they support
Follow the underlying results and references. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place.
Elections Canada — Official Voting Results — 2019 General Election
Official Voting Results — 2019 General Election
Elections Canada
National valid-vote totals and House seats for the complete 2019 comparison. Provincial vote shares and seats support the Saskatchewan example.
Elections Canada — Official Voting Results — 2011 General Election
Official Voting Results — 2011 General Election
Elections Canada
Conservative national vote share, seat count and seat majority in 2011. Seat share is calculated from seats won and total House seats.
Elections Canada — Official Voting Results — 2015 General Election
Official Voting Results — 2015 General Election
Elections Canada
Liberal national vote share, seat count and seat majority in 2015. Seat share is calculated from the official seat counts.
Elections Canada — Official Voting Results — 2021 General Election
Official Voting Results — 2021 General Election
Elections Canada
Liberal and Conservative national vote shares and seat counts. Seat shares are calculated from 338 House seats.
Elections Canada — Official Voting Results — 2025 General Election
Official Voting Results — 2025 General Election
Elections Canada
Liberal and Conservative national vote shares and seat distribution for the less dramatic comparison. Seat shares use the 343-seat House at this election.
Elections Canada — Canada’s political system
Canada’s political system
Elections Canada
The one-MP-per-riding plurality rule and how constituency victories determine House seats.
Elections Canada — Comparing electoral systems
Comparing electoral systems
Elections Canada
Why applying alternative rules to historical votes does not predict an election under those rules: voter and party behaviour may change.
International IDEA — Electoral System Design: The New International IDEA Handbook
Electoral System Design: The New International IDEA Handbook
International IDEA
Design choices and democratic criteria, including proportionality, accountability, candidate choice and geographic links. These criteria do not settle a single objective definition of fairness.